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20120928
20121006
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of uncertainties on the table. yet, a little more clarity in what's going on in the campaign ahead of the election. michael, tell me about your allocation of capital in the face of the unknowns in terms of the economic data and the election. >> look, those that have been following my analysis know i was one of the first to call for the reflation trade back in january. we passed through the summer surprise. by the end of the fall, we're going to hit new all-time highs. i have to caution everybody here. the idea this is a romney rally is a bit of a misnomer. if it were based on u.s. domestic economic policy expectations, small cap stocks, which are dependent upon domestic revenue growth, are not showing that. they're not outperforming larger cap stocks. that's number one. number two, when you look at utilities and health care consumer staples, there's been tremendous bidding up of defensiveness in the face of this resilient move. we've actually positioned, in terms of mutual fund and separate accounts, back into bonds until this hesitation and corrective period ends. >> ron, you call this a romney r
you think might happen here. >> so we put a 60 to 70% probable that there is a deal after the election, probably in the lame duck session or shortly thereafter. we think -- and there's a great piece on pimco.com by my colleagues that details that. we think that will amount to about a 1 to 1.5% contraction in fiscal terms as opposed to the 4% contraction that we would get in fiscal terms from the fiscal cliff. it is possible, not probable, that we go over the cliff and it's possible we get a grand bargain. we put 60 to 70% that there will be some sort of compromise both parties can agree on. >> you don't think the chances of a grand bargain are not particularly great? that there's a long-term address to the whole issue of the fiscal deficit. >> unfortunately, not this time around. >> mohammed, earlier today, the founder of pimco tweeted out some investment recommendations, including buying spanish and italian bonds, government bonds, which sounds almost contrarian when we're so worried about what's going on with europe. what's the investment thesis behind that? >> it's simple. it is to
in past fourth quarters. what about this year, especially in light of the elections, the unresolved fiscal cliff issue, all this quantitative easing money out there, the uncertainty in europe? let's look ahead in today's "closing bell" exchange. you know, carol, we've had this discussion this week about the games in the market don't seem to reflect the declines in the economy. there's sort of a disconnect. i think you agree with that, don't you? >> i absolutely agree with you, bill. i think all of september the market has been moved, not by what's going on here in the united states, but what's been going on in europe, which says to me two things. one, any bad news out of europe is going to send the market down. two, eventually people are going to have to pay attention to what's going on in the united states. i'm expecting we're heading into earnings season, i'm expecting anemic growth, and eventually that's going to have to play into the situation here. i mean, i know you don't fight the fed, but eventually we have to come back to what's going on in terms of fundamentals and stop focusing
on the board of cisco and ceo john chambers recently said whoever wins this election should govern like bill clinton as he spoke about clinton's effectiveness. what's going on from your view sitting on the board of cisco, having the experience that you've had at yahoo! tell me how you see the environment changes and where specifically you would expect growth to happen in technology in the next five years. >> well, i think technology in general -- probably the biggest challenge is not so much the social interactions but everybody's talking so much about data. data is very, very hard to mine correctly. so i think you're going to see a push back towards a lot of enterprise apps that really figure out how it get information to the companies so they can actually be more personalized for the user, but easy to say, a lot to do. >> and really quick, on what you're seeing out there, how tough is europe right now for technology? what are you seeing in terms of the global slow down? >> well, europe continues to baffle us in general in technology. it looks like it's getting softer, not stronger. you kno
ultimately you'll see it fall. i'd look to re-enter that trade after the u.s. election. that's when historically gold and gold equities do well. >> you're talking short term. what about the longer term possible inflationary implications of the very -- the move by the ned to keep rates as low as possible right now? isn't that considered inflationary? wouldn't that be good for gold, long term? >> yeah, absolutely. so if you're looking out 12 months i think you see gold pass $2,000, up, for sure. that's certainly going to happen. if you look at the fmoc meetings from the last meeting, they basely said they're talking off the inflation story. in fact, inflation news or the story would be great for the market. great for gold. >> in the meantime, both of you like stocks over gold. i'll let you -- i'll let you gold bugs out there draw your own conclusions on that one for now. maria? >> bill, thank you so much. >>> we're well off the highs on wall street as we approach this final stretch. i want to show you apple. part of the reason the market is coming off the highs is because of a decline
together along with the chronological orders as we get closer and closer to the election. that hawill have a big impact wh rates and fiscal cliff issues. when it comes to the fed, all the moves were in anticipation. if you go back and look at the august meeting and how the s&p acted, the dow acted, the weakness in the dollar index, and maybe most of all the rally in mortgages, which could have been the most telegraphed easy trade for the big dogs in the fixed income fund market of all time. but today's adp might have been better, sequentially lower. it doesn't make a different to employment. i have yet to see any research that says qe anything does. >> all right. thank you, all. good to see you. thanks for your thoughts today. appreciate it. >> thank you. >> all right. we're in the final stretch. we have a mixed market for the most part. >> i don't care what you got planned for the afternoon. stick around. we are just getting started on this very busy wednesday edition of the "closing bell." watch. >>> coming up, downloading a dividend? what will apple do with its huge war chest and potent
Search Results 0 to 5 of about 6